US Economy Faces Crosscurrents: Strong GDP Growth but Weakening Labor Market
The US economy shows resilience with 2.2% GDP growth projected for 2026, but job creation slows to 79,000 per quarter and unemployment rises to 4.5%.
Economic coverage written for people running a business rather than trading one. A rate decision is interesting here for what it does to borrowing costs and customer demand, not for what it signals to markets.
Inflation, employment, consumer spending and credit conditions all show up in the same places for a small business: what inputs cost, what customers will pay, how quickly invoices get settled and what a facility costs to service.
If cash flow is the concern, our cash flow forecasting tools are free and run entirely in your browser.
Australian conditions get particular attention here, because national aggregates hide the thing an operator needs. A national inflation figure says little about what a specific input costs, and an unemployment rate says little about whether you can hire the person you actually need.
The indicators worth watching for a small business are narrower: business credit availability, insolvency rates in your sector, average debtor days and construction approvals if you sell into that chain. Those move earlier and mean more than the headline numbers.
2 articles in Economy
The US economy shows resilience with 2.2% GDP growth projected for 2026, but job creation slows to 79,000 per quarter and unemployment rises to 4.5%.
Two-thirds of bankers see recession risk in 2026. Tariff volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and open-banking risks drive concerns.