Winter Storm Fern Shatters Natural Gas Records: 360 Bcf Withdrawal

Winter Storm Fern has torn through US energy markets with unprecedented force. The storm triggered a record-shattering 360 billion cubic feet (Bcf) natural gas withdrawal in a single week — the largest in the history of the US Energy Information Administration's tracking. With 18.3 Bcf per day of production shut in and Henry Hub spot prices spiking to $30.565 per million British thermal units, Fern has exposed critical vulnerabilities in America's energy infrastructure that politicians and industry leaders have debated since Winter Storm Uri in 2021.

A Perfect Storm for Energy Markets

Fern arrived at the worst possible moment. Natural gas storage levels had already been running 8% below the five-year average heading into February, a consequence of strong LNG export demand and a colder-than-expected January. When the Arctic blast descended across the central US on February 8, temperatures in Texas dropped to -5°F, Oklahoma hit -15°F, and even typically mild regions of the Southeast saw sustained sub-freezing conditions for five consecutive days.

The dual impact was devastating. Heating demand surged to record levels as residential and commercial consumers cranked up furnaces, while simultaneously the extreme cold froze wellheads, compressor stations, and gathering lines across the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale. At the storm's peak, 18.3 Bcf/day of production — roughly 15% of US dry gas output — was offline. The resulting supply-demand imbalance sent prices into territory not seen since the Uri crisis.

The $30 Price Spike

Henry Hub spot prices hit $30.565/MMBtu on February 10 — an extraordinary level for a commodity that traded around $3-4/MMBtu for most of 2025. Regional hubs fared even worse: Oneok Gas Transportation's Oklahoma hub hit $45/MMBtu, while Tennessee Zone 4 (serving the Northeast) breached $50/MMBtu during peak morning demand. Natural gas futures for March delivery jumped 28% in a single session, the largest one-day percentage move since the commodity's modern trading history began.

"We're watching a real-time stress test of the entire US natural gas system. The infrastructure investments made after Uri clearly weren't enough. When you lose 18 Bcf/day of supply while demand is at all-time highs, the math breaks." — Energy analyst, Wood Mackenzie

Infrastructure Failures Repeat

Despite five years of supposed winterization mandates following Winter Storm Uri, the pattern repeated with depressing familiarity. Texas gas processing plants that were supposed to be winterized went offline. Compressor stations in the Marcellus Shale lost power. Pipeline pressure dropped across the Midwest as demand overwhelmed system capacity. ERCOT, Texas's embattled grid operator, issued its first Level 3 energy emergency since the 2021 crisis, narrowly avoiding the cascading blackout that killed over 200 people five years ago.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) immediately announced an investigation, with commissioners openly questioning whether voluntary weatherization standards need to become mandatory federal requirements. Oklahoma's governor declared the storm "proof that energy resilience is a national security issue, not just a market problem."

Ripple Effects Across the Economy

The gas price spike is already cascading through the broader economy. Industrial consumers that use natural gas as feedstock — chemical manufacturers, fertilizer producers, steel mills — have curtailed operations. LNG export terminals, which account for over 14 Bcf/day of demand, were forced to reduce flows as domestic needs took priority. European natural gas benchmarks jumped 12% in sympathy, reviving concerns about global energy security that had receded since the worst of the 2022 energy crisis.

For small businesses and consumers, the impact will arrive on utility bills within 30-60 days. Analysts estimate that February heating bills across the affected regions will be 40-60% higher than normal, with some commercial customers facing bills three to four times their typical winter rates.

What's Next

As temperatures moderate and production comes back online, the immediate crisis is easing. But the strategic questions linger. US natural gas storage is now 15% below the five-year average, creating a precarious setup for any late-winter cold snap. FERC's investigation could result in the first mandatory weatherization standards for the gas industry — a move that would cost billions but could prevent the cycles of crisis, outrage, and complacency that have defined US energy policy for decades.